Rising steel prices in September, the second fire ignited!

Date： 1970-01-01

Recalling 2Q09 market, domestic steel prices fell sharply after strong pressure soared in April, near the end of the quarter return volatility throughout the second quarter market Xianyanghouyi. As of June 18, ordinary steel integrated absolute price 2524.54 yuan / ton, the monthly link down 183.36 yuan / ton (a decline of 6.77%), year on year rose 89.08 yuan / ton (increase of 3.66%).

In the meantime, demand for silver four sustained release, coupled with resources tight, with the Fair Park Tangshan steel mills shut down speculation limited production, market prices soared to 3239.28 yuan / ton, the company profitable, highest profit per tonne up 1000, after the positive steel production complex, social inventory and steel stocks both showing increasing trend, supply and demand once again gather the steel City.

So in the next three quarters, the face amount of the increased supply and consumption off-season, the domestic steel prices will go from here? The author believes that the current domestic steel prices have been low, but there is still downside, the probability of the third quarter steel production very high, especially in August, can be analyzed from the following factors:

First, the steel production high, seasonal shrinking downstream demand. According to CISA statistics show that in mid-May 2016, China Steel Association member steel companies Nissan crude steel 1.7458 million tons, an increase of 38,100 tons over the previous period, an increase of 2.23%, a record high in late June 2015 since. According to estimates, in mid-May, the country's daily output of crude steel 2.3476 million tons, 2.05% increase over the previous period, showing the late supply pressure should not be overlooked.。

While the downstream demand still sluggish, under normal circumstances, the rainy season in Q3 / hot weather, are steel consumption season. May economic data show that the steel terminal data has declined. Real estate, 1--5 months, the national real estate development investment of 3.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.0%, the growth rate of 1 - down 0.2 percentage points in April. Fixed assets investment in 2016, 1--5 months, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) 18.7671 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6% nominal growth rate of 1 - 0.9 percentage points lower in April. Vehicles, the statistics also show that in April 2016, car sales were completed 2,170,000 and 2,122,000, respectively, and sales were down 13.9% and 13%, respectively.

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